2009 Predictions: Part I

I hate making predictions when it comes to Major League Baseball, but it seems to be the fun/predictable thing to do this time of year. So here are a few predictions for the 2009 season.

AL East Winner: Yankees- They’re pitching staff is as good as it’s been in 6 years. Plus, as opposed to last season, they have reinforcements in the minors in case of an emergency. The bullpen may not be stellar, but they’ll be healthy and fresh, thanks to Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland. Look for Mark Teixeira to have a big season.

AL Central Winner: Twins- I’m not surprised by this team anymore. Not having Joe Mauer will be a tough loss for the first few weeks or so of the season, but they have some nice young arms and a proven closer to nail down games.

AL West Winner: Oakland A’s- The reign of the Angels is over in the West. Too many injuries to the starting staff for Anaheim. I like the veteran leadership in Oakland this year, plus having some solid arms like Justin Duchscherer and Ziegler (pen). Although they have young arms in the starting rotation, they have enough power in the lineup where they should out-slug teams on most nights.

AL Wildcard Winner: Boston Red Sox- It comes down between Tampa and Boston (Cleveland with an outside shot). For Yankee fans, there isn’t much that needs to be said here. If we’re in the dance, we expect Boston to be there too.

NL East Winner: Philadelphia Phillies- Where Sports Illustrated gets off claiming the Mets are going to win the Series, I have no idea. They have no rotation outside of Johan Santana. Philadelphia has all the pieces in place to repeat as division winner. They have a great closer, perfect even–heh. Plus I LOVE Raul Ibanez-he’s going to have a great year in that park.

NL Central Winner: Chicago Cubs- I get the feeling this is going to be a run-away for the Cubbies-we’re talking double digit lead come September. Watch out for Kevin Gregg, just a hunch, but I think he’s in for a long season. Carlos Marmol will be the closer by June.

NL West Winner: San Francisco Giants- Why not? The division is brutal, plus they have a really stellar rotation.

NL Wildcard Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers- Because the postseason isn’t a postseason without Manny Ramirez and Joe Torre.

Coming Tomorrow (4/3/09): Award Predictions.

Yankees Acquire Catcher Stewart

The Yankees have added some depth behind home plate, acquiring catcher Chris Stewart from the White Sox for a player to be named later.

Stewart will join the major league camp, and probably begin the season at Triple-A.

Schilling Hangs Up Bloody Sock

ESPN is reporting that Curt Schilling is retiring from Major League Baseball after 23 years of service. The veteran right hander has a career record of 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA with five teams, Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Arizona & Boston. It’s the latter two teams that will forever be etched in Yankee fan’s hearts.

The Yankees have won an awful lot of regular season games over the last eight years. But the loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2001 World Series started the downfall of the Yankees as a dominant postseason winner.

In that series, Curt Schilling pitched 3 games (3 starts) with a 1.69 ERA–26 K’s on 21.3 innings pitched. His effort in Game 7 is legendary, matching Roger Clemens pitch for pitch. He made just one mistake, and it actually wasn’t a bad pitch. A splitter that Alfonso Soriano belted to left and gave the Yankees a brief 2-1 lead. His overall effort throughout the entire series is the stuff that legends are made of. He completely dominated the Yankees, and prevented them from capturing their fourth Worlds Championship and fifth in six years.

In Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS, a literally bloody and battered Curt Schilling, pitching on a severly injured ankle, the same injury that contributed to a brutal Game 1 loss, shut down the Yankees through 7 innings, leaving the field with a, now notorius, bloody sock. Whether is was real blood or another substance, you cannot look past what he gave the Red Sox, as they drove another nail into the Yankees couffin.

Look, as a die-hard Yankee fan, I hate this man’s guts. No doubt about it. But, you can’t argue what he meant to the Red Sox since 2004. He’s a guy that I would have loved to see on the Yankees. We all love David Wells, but I don’t look at him the same after he jumped ship in Game 5 of the 2003 Word Series. After what Schilling did in 2004, basically pitching on one ankle, he showed his legend status. He is a big-game pitcher, a career 11-2 record in the post-season.

I don’t know if he’s a hall-0f-famer, but he’ll be in the conversation, there’s no doubting that. I’m glad we don’t have to face him anymore, but his presense is going to be missed when the Yanks battle Boston.

It’s overkill on a lot of levels

So what now?

Was anyone really blown away by the annoucement that Alex Rodriguez juiced? Maybe at first, you shook your head and said..”Oh boy.” But after reality set in, was it really that earth-shattering?

When the steroids talk first began, and I mean really took up speed about 4-5 years ago, I was hooked. I wanted to know everything. From names to where the players got their “goods”. You name it, I couldn’t get enough of it. I wrote numerous articles and columns for my college paper. As sports editor, I couldn’t let this go without sounding off. I was in love with steroid talk.

Maybe I’m getting older. Maybe I heard enough of it. But I just don’t care anymore. I’m bored by it.  Even hearing Alex Rodriguez’s name attached to the topic doesn’t do it.

True baseball fans, I think, have to accept that steroids were a part of the game for a good decade and a half. Names, that at one time, were honored and beloved by fans across America, are now tarnished. Tarnished by their own actions, and by the era they played in.

Alex Rodriguez is just the latest great name to be added to this list. I don’t think it matters what he says (if he does) regarding these test results. His image has taken a serious hit, a hit that many others have taken as well. It was a part of the game. We need to embrace that and move on.

Examining the 2009 Bullpen

If there’s one thing you can say about the 2008 Yankees, it’s that they finally figured out how to use their bullpen again. For years under Joe Torre, the Yankee pen was drained by July, partially because the starters couldn’t get out of the 5th, but mostly because Torre did a poor job managing the relievers. Torre constantly used arms he trusted, guys like Quantrill, Proctor, Gordon, Villone and Sturtze. He didn’t give relievers like Veras, Bruney, Ramirez and Britton a fair shot. Look, it’s awfully tough to build confidence in yourself when you’re yanked and banished from the mound after a rough outing.

 

In 2008, Joe Girardi showed Yankee fans how a bullpen should operate. He used guys in the right spots, gave them rest when they needed it, while all along developing young arms like Veras and Ramirez. When I look back over the ‘08 season, I can really only think of one mistake Girardi made managing the bullpen. In early August against the Rangers, Girardi left an obviously drained Damaso Marte on the mound to face the top of the order, mostly right-handed hitters. Marte eventually gave up a game-winning grand slam to Marlon Byrd. There were other options to consider. Marte walked 3 batters in 1 1/3 innings, throwing 42 pitches. That’s not using him effectively, and he clearly showed the repercussions.

But let’s not dwell on the bad. Girardi did more for the Yankee bullpen in one season then Jore Torre did in 12. And 2009 should be another solid season for the Yankees in the pen.

Projected Bullpen:
C- Rivera
SU- Bruney
SU- Marte
MR- Veras
MR- Ramirez

Options/Decisions
Phil Coke
Jonathan Albaladejo
David Robertson
Dan Giese
Alfredo Aceves (SP?)
Mark Melancon
Humberto Sanchez
Brian Bruney has reportedly lost over 40 pounds since 2007 and is in great shape. I think he’s going to turn in a hell of a season. If Girardi can limit Marte to lefties, and not expose him too much to right handers, I think he can be as good as his baseball card says he is. You even have to get a little excited when you look at some of the arms that are on the bubble. There are some good arms in that bunch, and a lot of potential.

The 09 pen will be a good mix of young and experienced arms, and with Girardi calling the shots, it could be a very good year for this bunch.

Examining the Red Sox Off-season

When examining the Boston Red Sox offseason moves, one has to wonder if the Sox front office really believes that they’re helping their team in 2009, or just trying to keep up with the Yankees.

It was only a few seasons ago that the Yankees overreacted to the Red Sox acquisition of Curt Schilling, and  tried to make up for it by trading for Javier Vazquez (Bye Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera), and Kevin Brown (I would have traded Jeff Weaver for a hot dog). It all added up to an unproven right hander who couldn’t throw a strike in the 2nd half of the season, and an over-the-hill sinker baller who broke more hands than bats in his tenure with the Yankees.

Flash forward to 2009. The Yankees have inked CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, only to follow it up by landing Mark Teixeira. They’ve put themselves in prime position for another run at the postseason and a 27th World Championship.

Since the Yankees last Championship, the Red Sox have racked up two trophies, and have set a precedent on how a front office should operate. Develop young pitching, make smart signings, and rid yourselves of players who have become disasters in the clubhouse. They were the cream of the crop the last few seasons.

But, I think the wheels have started to come off. In the last few weeks, the Red Sox have signed Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli. If this was 2004, I think the Yankees would be shaking in their boots, but not in 2009. Brad Penny has had a difficult time staying healthy in his career. His numbers against AL teams have never been good. Penny has struggled in interleague play, going 7-11 with a 5.08 ERA in 24 appearances against AL opponents. Now look, he could revert back to form and light up the AL East, but you mean to tell me that there isn’t another team in MLB that wouldn’t want to take a chance on this guy-especially in the National League? SOunds shaky.

Just today, the Sox signed John Smoltz. After major shoulder surgery last season, the Sox are taking a chance on a guy who has never pitched in the American League, who has never pitched for a professional team other than the Atlanta Braves, and whose 41 year older shoulder is hanging on by the thread. Now the talk is the Sox may want to deal Clay Buchholz  because of the surplus of starting pitching. Isn’t this starting to sound a little bit like the Yankees?

The Red Sox starting rotation now stands: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Brad Penny, John Smoltz/Tim Wakefield. (Smoltz probably won’t be ready by opening day). Matsuzaka cannot throw strikes consistantly. Beckett has had two “off” years out of three in Boston. Wakefield is 42, with a bad back. Where is the sure thing in this rotation? I don’t see it. The Red Sox tried this route last season with Bartolo Colon, and that failed miserably.

The one positive thing I can say about the Sox signings is that they didn’t spend a lot. They were financially smart with these moves. But it is a big question mark on what type of return they’re going to get.

In terms of Rocco Baldelli, I can’t comment on health issues, because only Rocco knows how he is physically. He could play left field for Boston, but if he’s only able to play 1 or 2 days in the field due to his health condition, it seems the Sox signed him to use him off the bench. Let’s not forget, he only played in 28 games last season.

It seems that the Sox are simply “keeping up with the Joneses”. The Yankees have made some wonderful moves (although,no-brainers) this offseason. I can’t say the same for Boston, but these moves have to play out on the field-if they can make it onto the field.

Look at me..gotta be…Centerfield

Where have you gone Bernie Williams, our empire turns its lonely eyes to you…

Remember when Centerfield was a given. When manager like Buck Showalter or Joe Torre could pencil in Bernie Williams’ name everyday.

Was he the quickest Center fielder? No.

Was he the best defensive Center fielder? Well, he did score 4 gold gloves, but I think you could make the case that there were better defensive center fielders.

Could he throw? Umm-I’ll let that one go.

Could he hit? Absolutely.

As the Yankees prepare for 2009 and move into their new digs, they have a gaping hole to fill, one the Yankees have rarely had to worry about in their storied history.

I think you could ask any one of the above questions regarding the Yankees current options in Center, and get positive answers. I mean, Brett Gardner can run and can cover a lot of ground in center. Melky Cabrera has great range and a solid arm. Johnny Damon can get on-base with the best of them, and could probably pop 20 home runs. So combined, the Yankees have a great centerfielder. But we all know that’s not going to work.

Of the options the Yankees currently have for Centerfield, Brett Gardner seems like the best one. Melky Cabrera has regressed each of the last 3 seasons. Johnny Damon was pulled from centerfield for a reason 2 seasons ago. He can’t track em’ down anymore.

Let’s be honest, if Gardner can hit .250, I think the Yankees would sign up for that. His ability to turn a single into a double, and take the extra base is uncanny. The Yanks have been lacking speed in their lineup for years, and it just got a whole-lot worse (speed-wise) with the addition of Mark Teixeira. The lineup turns over nice with Gardner leading into Damon and Jeter.

New York will love this guy if he can hold down the job.

Winter Meetings: Day 1 Thoughts

A few thoughts regarding what has happened so far in Vegas…

Tigers made a move, trading for catcher Gerald Laird from the Rangers. Laird is not an offensive threat, and will be even less of one hitting in Comerica, but he gives Detroit a solid defensive backstop, and a replacement for Pudge Rodriguez. Detroit now has 3 catchers on their roster: Laird, Brandon Inge and Dusty Ryan.

If I’m Omar Minaya,I cannot screw up the signing of Francisco Rodriguez. Let’s face it, K-Rod will be the Mets bullpen if he signs this year. If Minaya wiffs on K-Rod, the Mets pen could be even worse in 09, even if they bring in Brian Fuentes or Kerry Wood. However, Rodriguez is not a slam dunk at the end of games. May I remind you of the 08 playoffs? That being said, they have to bring him in though, he’s the best closer out on the market.

I know there’s a love affair in Boston with Jason Varitek, and rightfully so, he is the definition of a leader. But, all of his skills are on the decline. Even if they bring him back for a year, I’m not sure it’s worth it. The only way I make the move is if Varitek agrees to become the backup to Kevin Cash. You have to give the kid a shot, outside of being Tim Wakefield’s personal ball chaser.

Cash and CC Meet: According to Buster Olney, ESPN, the meeting went “great”. CC-Pinstripes are very slimming.

Blog reborn/Swisher reaction

I admit, I’ve paid no attention to this blog since August. I got lazy. But, being a former journalism student, and working at a job that keeps me writing daily, I need to get back to this and be more consistent with it. If you’re reading this via LoHud and Pete Abraham’s blog, keep checking back, I promise to make this a good fan’s blog. There are some great Yankee blogs out there, and I love to read them all. Stars and Pinstripes is a reflection of me, a life-long Yankee fan, and hopefully generates a few comments or two. Now, on to bigger and better things.

Nick Swisher
It’s a great deal when you break it down. The Yankees didn’t give up a lot. There wasn’t a spot on this team for Wilson Betemit. Yes, a utility infielder, and a switch hitter, but we all know about his plate struggles. Besides, I think the Yankees like what they saw out of Cody Ransom last season, and I think you’re going to see him on the roster in 2009.

Giving up Jeff Marquez is fine with me. I believe in Brian Cashman’s plan of developing young pitching, and let’s be real: you can never have enough pithcing, especially young pitching. However, Marquez was never a top-flight minor leaguer. If he develops into a solid big league starter, more power to him. Word is the White Sox would like to work with Marquez to develop a cutter. He hasn’t been with them 24 hours, and they already think a cutter will somehow turn him into Josh Beckett. I don’t get that. Bottom line, the Yankees didn’t lose a whole bunch in this deal.

Nick Swisher had a fine season in Oakland two years ago, and you don’t forget how to hit and be productive overnight. Chicago was a bad fit for him. Apparently Swisher didn’t like leading off, and we all know that won’t happen in 2009. Adding another switch hitter to the lineup is a plus. It gives Joe Girardi a little more versatility, and gets them younger and better defensively, at a position that’s been lacking defense since 2002.

The trade means one thing to me. The Yankees now have more money to throw at CC Sabathia. Trading for Swisher pretty much kills the idea of Mark Teixeira in pinstripes. However, who was the back up plan if the Yankees failed on Teixeira? Casey Blake? I think Nick Swisher is  a better option than Casey Blake.

We all know this team needs pitching, but you can’t hide the hole at first base. This move sured up the fact the Yankees will be making a big run at starting pitching this offseason.

Twins could designate Livan Hernandez

With the prospect of possibly having Darrell RAsner and Sidney Ponson starting 22 of the final 55 games for the Yankees this season, the Yankees will almost have to find someone else to plug at least one of those holes.

Options include: Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Carl Pavano (if healthy) and Chien Ming Wang (if healthy).

Here’s an interesting possiblity: Livan Hernandez.

Innings eater, no doubt. But is he that much of an upgrade over Rasner and Ponson? Certainly Ponson who may have run out of Houdini acts based on his last start in Fenway. But if Hernandez clears waivers, the Yankees would have to look at him. Post season experience is a plus, and let’s face it, the way Rasner and Ponson have looked the past 3 weeks, you can’t have them going in big games; games you need to win. Especially with 9 games left against Anaheim.

I fully expect the Yankees to land another starter within the next few weeks whether it’s from the farm or the waiver wire. Problem is, are any of them better than what the Yankees have currently?